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The passage discusses the end of the grand age of measurement with the deaths of Francis Galton and Henri Poincaré in 1911 and 1912 respectively. The author states that their understanding of risk climaxed on the eve of World War I, which brought about radical transformations in art, literature, and music. The author argues that the war shattered the optimism of the Victorians and led to a rejection of the idea that the future could be determined with certainty. The classical economists had believed in a riskless system that always produced optimal results, and stable economies with no involuntary unemployment or disappointing profits. However, the uncertainties and disruptions caused by the war undermined these beliefs. The author highlights the work of Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes, who were the first to seriously confront the issues of uncertainty and risk in economics. Knight, a cynical and outspoken economist, argued that the future is uncertain and unknowable, and that reliance on probability calculus and past experiences was hazardous. He introduced the distinction between risk (measurable uncertainty) and uncertainty (immeasurable uncertainty). Keynes, from a more privileged background, shared Knight’s skepticism of classical theories and the idea that human nature is reasonable and predictable. He rejected the use of mathematical probabilities and emphasized the importance of uncertainty in decision-making, particularly in relation to investment and economic fluctuations. The passage concludes by suggesting that uncertainty is freeing, as it means that our decisions matter and we have the power to change the world.

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